Salvete: Rotherham United

As one of the longer lasting League One clubs, one of our tasks is to ‘welcome’ the seven new opponents who will be joining us next season.   Rotherham United have already been relegated from the Championship.   In the season so far they have won just four matches (none away) and have conceded 85 goals.

It wouldn’t be unfair to say that Rotherham has had its economic and social challenges since the decline of the steel industry.   It is very much in the shadow of a more vibrant Sheffield.

When I was an undergraduate (nearly sixty years ago) one of my flat mates had a girl friend who came from Rotherham.   Not only that, her family owned the leading (probably the only) department store in Rotherham.  When he went up there he was given a tour of the department store with every member of staff bowing and scraping to Miss X.  

I can’t give her name because she is still alive and I had a bit of a run in with her which looks bizarrely amusing in retrospect, but annoyed me at the time.   What was evident was that the family were not short of money including a big house in an even then expensive Cornish resort.  The point here is that Rotherham was once a prosperous working class community.

Now, ‘Rotherham has been ranked the unhappiest place to live in England according to a survey. Rightmove asked 21,000 people to complete a study based on their overall happiness with their area and what makes a place feel like home. Out of 221 cities, towns and villages surveyed, Rotherham came bottom of the list.’

Many years back after seeing Charlton play an early kick off at Huddersfield, some of us went over to see Brighton play at Millmoor, Rotherham United’s then ground.   I thought it was a typical old style Third Division North ground, atmospheric but not 21^st century.

Now the Millers have a smart new stadium, the New York Stadium (actually named after a local area), but they keep yo yoing between the Championship and League One, although the training ground is a swamp and apparently frequently under water. They have been relegated in four of the last eight seasons, owner Tony Stewart refusing to splash the cash and put the club into debt.

Stewart owns a local lighting manufacturing firm.

Former supremo Matt Taylor missed all his summer transfer targets and ended up signing players who were too old or injury prone to attract interest elsewhere.

They might be better off trying to consolidate in League One, taking advantage of not paying Championship wages to improve the infrastructure.  A decent training ground is a key to success.

Match day attendances are a constraint: the record at the new stadium was 11,758 against local rivals Sheffield United in 2013.

However, the owner and the fans will expect them to compete so they could well be in the running for promotion.   In other words, they are a potential thorn in our side as we seek to escape from League One.

Charlton to go through the mill

I have a lot of time for Rotherham manager Paul Warne.   Opposition managers always try to big up Charlton because it looks better if they win and helps when they get their book of excuses out after a defeat.

Nevertheless, Warne says: 'They've got some outstanding players.  I know I always speak highly of the opposition, but as we have seen, respectfully, every team can cause you problems.  They're a really good footballing side, so when we get the ball back we're going to have to be effective.'

More from Warne on the game here: https://www.themillers.co.uk/news/2022/april/read--warnes-pre-charlton-athletic-press-highlights/

Rotherham are fresh from their pizza trophy triumph over Sutton United, albeit it wasn't an easy ride.  Before that they lost 0-3 at home to Shrewsbury and are behind Charlton in the form table.   However, they have won 13 out of 20 home league matches, losing just four.   They have scored 40 goals at home and conceded 20.

I thought that the Millers played some good football in the Championship and were unfortunate to be relegated.   As far as one can judge from highlights on the Football League show, they are a well-organised side who pass well and have pace.

Following midweek results, Rotherham have fallen back to third, although they have two games in hand over MK Dons in second.   For most of the season Curbs has been saying that Wigan and Rotherham will take the automatic promotion places and I agree, although the Franchisees are improving all the time.

I had this down as a 1-1 draw at the beginning of the season.   That might be possible if it wasn't for our shredded defence.   Famewo has not improved to the extent I had hoped, indeed he has slipped back.  There is no doubting Pearce's commitment but pace is an issue.

The CAS Trust preview is here: https://www.castrust.org/2022/04/fresh-hunger-for-fading-rotherham-after-papa-johns-win/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=fresh-hunger-for-fading-rotherham-after-papa-johns-win

Jacko's promotion picks

Johnnie Jackson reckons that Wigan Athletic and Rotherham United will occupy the League One automatic promotion places at the end of the season.   He also gives his assessment of Saturday's opponents Oxford United: https://londonnewsonline.co.uk/charlton-boss-picks-out-the-two-teams-he-believes-will-win-automatic-promotion-from-league-one/ 

Rotherham also see it as a 'tough test'

We are expecting a tough test against Rotherham tomorrow night, but that is also the expectation of their manager Paul Warne.  He says that Charlton are a good footballing side and there is no worse time to play a team than when they have had a change of manager: https://londonnewsonline.co.uk/rotherham-united-boss-expecting-tough-test-at-revitalised-charlton-athletic/

Given that he has been talking to Lee Johnson, he will also be alert to Jayden Stockley's head butting technique. 

For his part Johnnie Jackson has a great deal of respect for Rotherham and also sees it as a tough test: https://londonnewsonline.co.uk/charlton-athletic-caretaker-boss-johnnie-jackson-a-big-admirer-of-rotherham-united/ 

Jackson is hoping for a healthy Valley crowd tonight to get behind the team: https://londonnewsonline.co.uk/johnnie-jackson-charlton-fans-can-help-us-create-the-perfect-cycle/

Rotherham are currently top of the form table and 3rd in the table.   Charlton are now 8th in the form table.   Away from home the Millers have won four, drawn one and lost one.  They have scored nine goals and conceded two.   The Millers' last victory at The Valley was in 1982 when they won 5-1.

On October 24th they demolished MK Dons, currently 7th in the table, 3-0 away.   Paul Warne commented afterwards: 'I thought we had flashes of absolute excellence and our out of possession stuff was absolutely frightening today.'

Against Sunderland last Saturday they were dominant for large spells of the game.  Warne said, 'We are trying to win every game we play in.  I think if the lads play at their very best they are very difficult to play against.'   Michael Smith had two great finishes and he is League One's leading scorer with 12 goals.

A draw would be a good result.

Not the time to splash the cash

Nigel Adkins that two League One clubs have been splashing the cash this summer (and it's no secret that they are Ipswich and Wigan): https://londonnewsonline.co.uk/charlton-chief-nigel-adkins-gives-his-reaction-to-rotherham-managers-transfer-window-claim/

However, rather than rushing to make signings as some fans advocate the sagacious supremo reckons there will be better value next month when players find themselves without a pay packet.  Wage demands and agents' fees will come down.

It's very easy to over pay for players.

The art of prediction

Five of the fans who make predictions on CAFC Picks have got the results for this season right so far, including me. You don't have to be a forecasting genius to predict two home wins and an away defeat.

Tomorrow's game at Rotherham United offers a more interesting test of how the Addicks have progressed. Of the five 'successful' forecasters, two predict a draw and three a defeat (including me).

We could well be too pessimistic if Charlton have really turned a corner as their provisional league position may suggest. Rotherham United have won one and lost two games so far which, along with the score lines, puts them down at 15th. Both teams lost in the Carabao Cup during the week, but I can't take what happens in that competition very seriously.

At the moment many Charlton fans are in the glass half full camp and others take the glass half empty viewpoint. A very small group of hangers on and their running dogs think that Roland and Katrien are marvellous. At the opposite end of the spectrum, everything done by the present regime has to be treated with disbelief.

The glass half full crowd would say that the regime has learnt from its mistakes, has appointed an English manager with relevant experience (as opposed to Belgian or Belgian-linked no hopers) and has made some decent signings for this level. Morale in the team has improved and the time servers have been weeded out. Those of the other view would say that the learning process has been very expensive in terms of both money and lost support.

The glass half empty crowd would say that we are still short of strikers and we can't just rely on the midfield to get the ball in the net. We shall see what happens by transfer deadline day, but there is some force in Karl Robinson's argument that finding a decent striker at an affordable price is not easy.

My personal view is that the price ratio between strikers and defenders is out of kilter, not least in the Premier League. However, just like a house's only real value is what will fetch in the market, transfer prices are influenced by supply and demand (albeit distorted by agents who seem to have run rings round the regime at The Valley).

Robinson is operating under a budget constraint, but that is true of most managers in League One. At least he appears to have a good personal relationship with Katrien Meire.

So where does this leave us? I am on media standby like a retained fireman with a target to be in the studio within 20 minutes of call out. (CNN Sport have me on the subs bench for the transfer window in case they are let down). If I was doing a report for the BBC, I would have to argue 'on the one hand, on the other.' Much as I like the BBC, this often involves giving equivalence to views that I personally think are barmy. Sky are more willing to let you take a line. If it was RT or Al Jazeera (if I could understand what the gallery was saying) I would be asked to take a very odd line. My favourite station to work for is France 24 (for whom I did a lot of work during the general election) because you get a perspective from outside the UK, but one that is intelligent and reasonably balanced.

If France 24 was interested in League One clubs, I would say that I remain somewhat sceptical about Karl Robinson because I think that he opens his mouth more than he should, often somewhat foolishly, but the real test is whether he can deliver the goods in terms of league position. Unfortunately, particularly at this point in the season, we are going to see a lot of the 'goldfish' syndrome where judgments are based on the last result.

If we win tomorrow, it will be evidence for those who take a very favourable view of Robinson. Lose, and the sceptics will feel their case is reinforced. Draw, and there will be a lot of confusion about how to interpret the result.

No wonder I am struggling with my article for the next VOTV, particularly given that even though Rick Everitt is prepared to give me the benefit of doubt about being economical with the actualité, he does think I have been constructing fictional narratives. But of course that is what we all do as fans: as they say, it's all about opinions. I am sitting on the fence, but that becomes uncomfortable after a while.

More about the Millers

I can't get through to the CAS Trust preview, but the headline says that we have been unbeaten away to them for 34 years. Of course, a lot then depends on how many times we have played them, mostly in recent years I suspect. For 101 years they played at the Millmoor stadium which was a 3rd Division North ground if there ever was. I went there with West Sussex CASC to support Brighton and Hove Albion after Charlton had won an earlier kick off at Huddersfield over the Christmas period.

The Aesseal New York Stadium cost £20m to build. It looks far bigger than its realistic 12,000 capacity with a striking design, especially its eye-catching roof. The Football Supporters' Federation made it Away Day of the Year in 2016.

Pundits do not generally expect the Millers to go straight back up. Four Four Two have them as bare survival candidates at 20th. Their fan pundit forecasts a 8th place finish, noting 'we might actually win more than five matches.'

Richie Barker was assistant manager at Charlton in 2016-17 before moving to the same role at Rotherham. On the Millers website it states, 'Richie Barker said that he still has a vested interest in all of the goings on at The Valley for personal reasons too, with his son having recently signed terms with the club's Academy setup.

My boy has just signed for their Under 15s, which we didn't time very well as he signed just as I'd left! I had no hesitation in putting him in a top Academy, where they produce some top players and I'm sure he'll be looked after while he's there and that was another reason that it was difficult to leave..;

Odds are: Rotherham 5/4, Draw 11/5, Charlton 15/8. The referee is Trevor Kettle from Lancashire who is notorious for his erratic decision-making, particularly in relation to Charlton. At any rate Karl Robinson will have a ready made excuse if we lose.

Rotherham manager Paul Warne has got his alibi in early by tipping Charlton for automatic promotion and saying they are the best team he has seen so far (sample size): Promotion tip